Strategy Centre

Analysis & Views

What next for the dollar?

Written by admin

Jason Sen

As we know the dollar has been in a strong bull market ever since the second quarter of 2014. In fact you can pinpoint the start of the bull market down to the second week of May last year, which means we are approaching the one-year anniversary. An excellent time to take a close look at the charts, after the recent corrective move to the downside. Is this just the start of a more significant bear move? Or a healthy correction in a longer-term bull trend? Let’s examine. First some background. The dollar index has had a very strong rally from a low of 78.90 in May 2014 up to a peak of 100.39 in the middle of March 2015. After a sell-off into late March/early April we staged a good recovery up to 99.99, falling just shy of that March peak. This double top pattern triggered more significant losses into the end of April, ending the month right on its low at 94.40. There is good reason to believe that this can mark a low for the three-week correction. The daily chart above clearly shows six days of heavy…

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Steve’s Trading Targets: April 2015

Written by admin

Steve Ruffley

In accordance with my 80/20 rule of trading there are certain things I’m looking at right now that will move the markets. Remember, 80% of the time my trades revolve around technical analysis. The other 20% of the time I focus on news and data. Following on from last month Trading Targets message: ‘We are ending the attention on ‘growth’ – now it’s all about inflation.’ This is now firmly planted in my trading outlook. After the worse than expected NFP (126K v 267K) the markets ended the bank holiday red. This was short-lived however, as the markets recovered on the Monday and simply rallied uncontrollably on Tuesday. Why? 1. Weak jobs mean that the Fed may hold or pause the inevitable rate hike 2. We were due a drop in the jobs creation 3. The weather. Will there be a huge revision to this figure next month? After some profit-taking, the threat of US rate hikes, Grexit or Russia, it seems the markets and indices take any news as a positive. These daily charts say it all: The DAX, FTSE, S&P and the Euro Stoxx retrace all the losses…

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This content is for information purposes only and should not be construed as trading advice.

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