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Analysis & Views

US dollar looks set to continue the bull trend now

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The EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY managed to stage a recovery last week when the Fed indicated that swift rate rises were not on the cards after the first increase at some stage this year. Today I am going to see if the charts indicate that any further strength is likely. We will start with the EUR/USD. The chart above shows the recovery we’ve seen over the last week and a half and, although the big gains last Wednesday were not sustained on the Thursday, we have spent the last three days staging a recovery to retest that high last week at 1.1031. In fact we topped almost exactly here yesterday at 1.1029. We are starting to look overbought and in my opinion it looks unlikely we can now break above that 1.1029/31 resistance. You cannot fight the longer-term bear trend and I see nothing to indicate any trend change at this stage. The best that the bulls can hope for I think is a market that ranges between 1.0500 and 1.1030. Of course a daily close or preferably a weekly close above 1.1040 could prove me wrong and trigger the…

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Brand New Webinar – Steve’s Trading Targets

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steve w background 2

Join me for my new webinar, Steve’s Trading Targets, on Monday 9 March at 1.30pm (UK time). I’ll be sharing my insight into the key calls traders will need to make in the coming weeks. Click here to sign up for Steve’s Trading Targets In accordance with my 80/20 rule of trading there are certain things I’m looking at right now that will move the markets. Remember, 80% of the time my trades revolve around technical analysis. The other 20% of the time I focus on news and data. No news is good news? Greece is the main focus in Europe at the moment. The fact that Greece was ‘playing hard ball’ worried me greatly. Greece has nowhere to go for help apart from maybe Russia. That’s certainly a rock and a hard place right now. From a technical perspective I have been playing close attention to the EUR/USD. Taking weekly Fibonacci from the August 2014 highs to recent lows it is clear that if the euro was going to find value higher up the range we would have seen this by now. Holding below the 1.14426 (23.6% Fibonacci) indicates…

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