Strategy Centre

Analysis & Views

Dollar index continues to hold four-year trendline resistance

Written by admin

I looked at the dollar index earlier in the month as we approached this important trendline resistance and it is worth revisiting the subject, because we have spent the whole of November testing this trendline, but failing to break above it, as you can see in the monthly chart below. You can also see at the bottom of the monthly chart, that we have become quite overbought on the stochastic oscillator. There is a potential negative warning there as the lines start to cross over. The red line you see is the 200 month moving average which is at 89.89 as I write and this also ties in with important longer-term Fibonacci resistance around the 89.70 area. It’s clear therefore that we are approaching quite a lot of resistance when you also factor in the highs for 2010 at 88.70. The high for this month so far is 88.44, which was hit at the start of trading this week. A look at the weekly chart below gives perhaps a slightly clearer picture of how the index is being held by this important longer-term trendline resistance. The weekly chart is also…

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Cameron and the EU: will the UK pay its £1.7bn bill?

Written by admin

steve w background 2

Our Chief Market Strategist Steve Ruffley considers the implications of David Cameron’s bid to overturn the UK’s £1.7bn bill to the EU. What ‘Pandora’s box’ is Cameron in danger of opening by refusing to pay the fee? How would changes raise questions about Britain’s multibillion pound EU rebate, which is worth £2.9bn a year? This issue is certainly more political than fiscal. It’s a political pawn that will be used to rally voters and gain Cameron some much needed credibility in standing up to the EU. Unfortunately when you sign up to these unions there is very little room for manoeuvre. The rules are set in place, agreed upon and then carried out. This means that while the UK, due to its austerity, stiff upper lip and economic cycle experience, has finally regained controlled of its economy, this comes with the price tag of £1.7bn in rebates to the EU. Of course nobody in the UK thinks this is fair. The problem is that the EU and the UK’s relationship will always be relatively one-sided. The UK is small and wealthy while the EU is large and broke: the dream…

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