Strategy Centre

Analysis & Views

Oil bear market may just be beginning

Written by admin

WTI Crude made a high for this year in June at 107.73 after a nice steady rally throughout the first six months. However since June we have experienced a sharp decline and it took just three months to unwind that six-month gain. You might think that after a drop of over $19 or over 17% that the price of oil is looking pretty cheap. We haven’t even completed the second day of the new month and already WTI Crude has dropped from a high of almost $93 to a low of $88.26 as I write. It’s not uncommon for oil to have a trading range of five dollars over the period of a month so this five-dollar move over a two-day period is remarkable enough. Let’s examine the longer-term charts to try to gain a perspective for the last quarter of 2014. The weekly chart above goes all the way back to 2012 showing the gentle recovery over the past two-year period. The severe sell-off in the third quarter of this year is clear but you can see how the last three weeks of September saw WTI Crude bottom out…

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Trading: it’s not about being right, it’s about being right at the right time

Written by admin

sr 60

As we hear on the news every day, the FTSE and other major indices have been on a great bull run. The reason for this is fairly simple: when interest rates are low and you want some return on your money where do you put it? In trustworthy blue-chip stocks. If you were a US investor where would you rather have your money: Greek government debt or Google shares? Even at $581 per share it is safe to say these shares are going to be in demand and hold their value. However, as the latest wave of anti-terror strikes hit Syria it is clear that the economic situation of the UK, Europe and the world as a whole is not the only fear factor driving the markets. Once again, with untold billions of dollars needed to fund a long and unpleasant bombing campaign, world markets are starting to become more volatile and people are assessing the impact both globally and domestically this will have on the world’s biggest economy: the USA. With volatility comes the ability to play out shorter-term trades that will yield vastly greater rewards than in ‘normal’…

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