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Analysis & Views

US stock markets could head lower into the end of September

Written by admin

  We have seen an excellent recovery through August for US stock markets after the summer correction, which I’m pleased to say I did predict in a couple of articles I wrote for before the summer started. The recovery in the USA was very much stronger than that witnessed in the European markets, which perhaps have been held back a little more by the ongoing trouble in the Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia. However all that could be about to change in the weeks ahead. I have to admit that I was surprised by the strength of the bounce back which set new highs for the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. The pattern that has developed over the past two to three weeks however looks more negative. Many argue that valuations are very overstretched and there is a lot of speculation out there about a more serious correction. It’s true to say that I have read articles calling for a crash in stock markets. According to my charts I do not yet see a significant move to the downside but I do see a small correction…

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Do you trade the S&P500? Here is why you should consider postponing your summer vacations

Written by admin

The major US stock market indices have seen a quite incredible rally since the crash of October 2007-March 2009. In this period the Emini S&P fell from 1586 to 666, a loss of 920 points or 58%. Very few investors saw this as one of the biggest buying opportunity in recent decades but that is exactly what it is turning out to be. In fact just for comparison the S&P 500 index quite steady growth after the stock market crash of 1987…the year in which I started trading on the London Stock Exchange Traded options market in fact. Then from 1995 it experienced an unprecedented rally up until the crash of 2000 caused by the internet bubble. These accelerated gains took the cash index from a 1995 low of 457 to a 2000 high of 1552, a gain of 1095 points or 239%. Chart shows the rally in the S&P 500 from March 2009 to Friday May 30th 2014. Each bar is one month. The next big crash occurred in 2007-2008 of course, taking the S&P 500 cash index from 1576 to 666. Very few investors and traders saw this…

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