WTI Crude has fallen dramatically in the past five months. In fact in the last 21 weeks oil has fallen in all but four of these. It’s a dramatic collapse which has taken us below 2011 lows of 74.95. We hit a low last week of 73.25. Perhaps the OPEC meeting next week could not come at a better time. There is of course talk about potential production cuts to support the price of oil, which is likely to be the only way that a slide in prices will be halted, when we bear in mind how the global economy appears to be slowing. A look at the longer-term charts does at least show we are holding onto an important longer-term support level. If OPEC can get its act together and show some unity, the charts do appear to show the potential for a base after the slide from 107.68. The monthly chart above shows how we are just holding below 2011 lows. More importantly however we have held onto the longer-term 50% Fibonacci support around the $74 area. Of course the market is severely oversold in many timeframes but…
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October 30, 2014, 8.00pm (London)
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November 4, 2014, 7:00 pm (London)
Our Chief Market Strategist Steve Ruffley considers the implications of David Cameron’s bid to overturn the UK’s £1.7bn bill to the EU. What ‘Pandora’s box’ is Cameron in danger of opening by refusing to pay the fee? How would changes raise questions about Britain’s multibillion pound EU rebate, which is worth £2.9bn a year? This issue is certainly more political than fiscal. It’s a political pawn that will be used to rally voters and gain Cameron some much needed credibility in standing up to the EU. Unfortunately when you sign up to these unions there is very little room for manoeuvre. The rules are set in place, agreed upon and then carried out. This means that while the UK, due to its austerity, stiff upper lip and economic cycle experience, has finally regained controlled of its economy, this comes with the price tag of £1.7bn in rebates to the EU. Of course nobody in the UK thinks this is fair. The problem is that the EU and the UK’s relationship will always be relatively one-sided. The UK is small and wealthy while the EU is large and broke: the dream…
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