Global round-up: analysis and trading ideas


Jason Sen

Bitcoin hit and held strong resistance at 7720/40 in the bear trend and is expected to head lower over the weekend. We look for the first target and minor support at 7610/00. The outlook is negative with further losses to target 7500/7490 and eventually 7410/00.

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An unexpected break above 7800, however, would be a short-term buy signal targeting 7950/8000, perhaps as far as 8140/8180.

EUR/USD has completed a small but bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Bulls must hold the pair above first support at 1.1750/60 (our buying opportunity today) to re-target 1.1810/20 and 1.1875, before strong resistance at 1.1900/10.

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There is minor support at 1.1790/86, then a buying opportunity at 1.1760/50 with stops below 1.1720.

USD/CAD bounced from good support at 1.2870/60 and is now holding first resistance at 1.2975/85. The outlook is negative and we are likely to turn lower from here. However, the best selling opportunity is at 1.3035/45, with stops above 1.3080.

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Holding below first resistance at 1.2975/85 (as is likely) targets 1.2940/36 and good support at 1.2870/60. A break lower is possible (even likely), eventually targeting 1.2820/15.

GBP/USD topped just below important resistance for the week at 1.3480/90. Holding first support at 1.3415/05 allows a small recovery towards our selling opportunity at 1.3480/90 (again we may top just below), with stops above 1.3425.

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The outlook is negative and a move below 1.3400 targets second support at 1.3375/70. On further losses look for 1.3340/35, perhaps as far as 1.3310/00 into next week.

The outlook for GBP/JPY is also negative and gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 148.50/60. Further gains are unlikely but, if seen, would re-test a selling opportunity in the 148.00 area with stops above 148.50. A break higher targets 149.15/20.

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A break below 146.80 looks likely eventually, targeting 146.30/20. Further losses into next week target 145.90/85 and 145.15/05.

WTI crude enjoyed a good bounce this week to ease oversold conditions and now targets strong resistance at 6620/30. Try short positions with stops above 6670. An unexpected break higher, however, allows a further recovery to strong resistance at 6745/55.

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Failure to beat 6620/30, as expected, targets 6540/30. On further losses look for 6465/55, before the low at 6430/20. A move below 6415/10 targets 6390/80, perhaps as far as 6330/25 and 6285/80.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

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