Short-term trading levels for the US nonfarm payrolls


Jason Sen

For EUR/USD the key to direction is obviously the 1.2090/92 high. A double top would be a sell signal in overbought conditions. If you want to bet on this over the nonfarm payrolls use a stop above 1.2115.

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A break higher (and weekly close above for confirmation) is a buy signal, targeting 1.2160/70, 1.2220, 1.2245 and 1.2270/75, perhaps as far as 1.2360.

A move below 1.2050, however, risks a re-test of good support at 1.2000/1.1990. The best support for today, though, is 1.1960/50. Long positions are risky if we form a double top, but if you try for a scalp place your stop below 1.1930. Be aware that a break lower targets 1.1890/80.

EUR/JPY held first support at 134.80/70 to hit all targets up to 136.40. The outlook remains positive as we look for 136.85/95 and 137.40/50.

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The downside is expected to be limited but a decline would meet first support at 136.00/135.90, then strong support at 135.40/30.

USD/JPY meets first resistance at 112.95/113.00. A break above two-month trendline resistance at 113.15/25 would take us to more important two-and-a-half-year trendline resistance at 113.80/90.

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The important 100-day moving average and Fibonacci support at 112.00/111.90 held perfectly this week. Bears need a break below the 200-day moving average at 111.65 for a sell signal, targeting 111.05/00 and the November low at 110.83.

It is unlikely this will hold for long. Further losses target 110.70/66 and strong support at 110.15/10 for a short-term buying opportunity in oversold conditions.

For USD/CAD the key to direction today is five-year trendline support at 1.2510/00. Long positions, however, need stops below 1.2460. A sustained break below 1.2460 (and weekly close below for confirmation) is a longer-term sell signal. We could drop 400 pips in as short a time as a week or two.

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Bulls need prices back above 1.2520 as soon as possible. We topped at the first target of 1.2550/60 yesterday but above here we meet strong resistance at 1.2590/2600. A break above here is another buy signal, targeting resistance at 1.2660/70.

AUD/USD tests 200-week moving average resistance at 7850/60 in overbought conditions. We need a weekly close above here tonight for a clear longer-term buy signal. A break above 7900 targets 7915, 7935/40 and 7980/90. Eventually we are likely to see the 2017 high at 8100/8124.

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Any short positions at resistance at 7850/60 would need stops above 7900. A move below 7825 is more negative for today with first support at 7795/90. The next target and support is at 7740/30.

NZD/USD took four days to clear the 200-day moving average at 7100/10 to target strong five-month trendline resistance at 7180/90. It is severely overbought but a weekly close above 7200 is a buy signal for next week targeting 7240/45 and minor Fibonacci resistance at 7260.

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Further gains would target 7290, 7340/45 and 7370/75. Meanwhile holding below 7180/90 targets 7135/30, then support at 7110/00. Long positions need stops below 7080.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

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