Trading levels for dollar pairs over the US nonfarm payrolls

Jason Sen

EUR/USD could be forming a very negative head-and-shoulders top. The key support today is at 1.2320/10. A break below 1.2290 would signal a move towards 1.2250/45. Below here we are likely to target 1.2220/10, then mega-important support at 1.2175/65. A break below the head-and-shoulders neckline at 1.2130 would be a big sell signal.

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Bulls need the pair back above 1.2340 to be in with a chance of a recovery to 1.2400/10. We should struggle here but further gains would re-test the 1.2430/40 high.

For AUD/USD the key to direction is first support at 7795/90. Holding here again today keeps bulls in control for 7810/15 and 7835/40. On further gains look for 7850 and 7870/80 for profit-taking.

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Failure to hold above 7795/90 targets minor support at 7760. Long positions need stops below 7745 and a break lower would target 7700/95.

The first support for NZD/USD is at 7265/60. Above 7275/80 we should re-target the 7310/11 high, then minor resistance at 7340. On further gains look for 7361/64 and 7380/84.

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Long positions need stops below 7240 to target much better support at 7190/80. Watch here for a low for the day. A weekly close below this level is however an important sell signal.

USDJPY shot higher through resistance at 106.60/70 for an important buy signal, so you could try to buy into long positions targeting 107.10/20, 107.45/50 and 107.80/85. I would exit long positons up to 108.30/40 and try shorts with stops above 108.80.

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Consider buying at 106.60/50, with stops below 106.20. A move below here risks a slide to 106.00 and 105.70/60 before the 105.28/23 low.

If USD/CAD holds below 1.2910 we risk a re-test of the low on Tuesday at 1.2860/50. Expect strong support at 1.2830/20 and a good chance of a low for the day, but long positions need stops below 1.2800. A break lower would target 1.2760, then strong support at 1.2720/10.

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We have minor resistance at 1.2945/55, then important resistance at 1.2980/1.3000. Place stops above 1.3030. However, be ready to reverse into a long position if shorts are stopped and we close the week above 1.3000. A sustained break above 1.3010 is an important buy signal, initially targeting 1.3035/40 and 1.3065/70.

GBP/USD broke support at 1.3850/45. The outlook is negative and a move below 1.3790 targets 1.3765/55, then the recent low at 1.3715/10. Further losses meet very important support at 1.3660/40.

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A recovery would meet strong resistance at 1.3850/60. Try short positions with stops above 1.3900. An unexpected break higher would target 1.3930/35, with a break higher looking for 1.3990/95.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

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