Trading levels for US nonfarm payrolls

Jason Sen

AUD/USD tests very important two-year trendline support at 7500/7490. If we rally on a weak NFP number today, bulls can target 7550 then resistance at 7590/95. Watch for a high for the day here.

A break higher, however, targets 7620/25 and then very strong resistance at 7645/55. A weekly close below 7470 is a sell signal targeting 7420/10 and 7380/70.

The AUD/USD weekly chart shows the pair bouncing over the past two years but the longer-term trend is negative.

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For NZD/USD the key to direction is strong resistance at 6935/65 but we have not quite made it there yet this week. A break above here completes a bullish pattern for a buy signal. If you try short positions be ready to stop and reverse into longs on a break higher, targeting 6980 and minor resistance at 7025/35.

We are trading just above minor support at 6815/10 as I write. A move below here tests the 6780 low. A break lower targets 6735 and 6715/10.

The NZD/USD weekly chart shows a sideways trend over the past 18 months.

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EUR/USD is holding below what is now resistance at 1.1810/00 and risks a slide to 1.1755, perhaps as far as 1.1715/05. On further losses look for a buying opportunity at 1.1685/75.

If a weak NFP number takes the pair back above 1.1820, look for a test of minor resistance at 1.1865/70. Further gains would target 1.1890/1.1900.

The EUR/USD weekly chart shows a good recovery this year as we hold above the 2015 high.

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USD/CAD bounces above strong resistance at 1.2745/55, reaching all targets as far as 1.2845/50 before the 1.2906/16 high. A weekly close above here is obviously positive but we need to clear the 200-day moving average at 1.2950/55 for a clear buy signal into next week.

The first support at 1.2775/65 could hold the downside but a weak NFP number risks a slide to 1.2715/05. Below 1.2680 signals further losses to 1.2620 before support at 1.2590/80. Long positions needs stops below 1.2550.

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GBP/USD shot higher to the 1.3475/80 target and topped exactly here as I write. We are maintaining the 14-month bull trend and further gains target 1.3520/25 before the October/November high at 1.3543/48.

Obviously a weekly close above here is positive for next week. targeting the September high at 1.3650/56. The first support is at 1.3430/20 but a move below here risks a slide to 1.3355/45.

The GBP/USD weekly chart shows a strong recovery this year after the two-year crash from mid-2014.

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Gold collapsed despite oversold conditions to hit 1244. We are oversold in the short term and on the daily chart but any recovery looks like a selling opportunity now. Bulls can only rescue their position with a weekly close above 1260.

There is minor resistance at 1251/52, then strong resistance at 1262/64, likely to see a high for the day if tested. Short positions need stops above 1268.

We collapsed 20 points in a straight line to 1244. A move below here targets 1240/39, 1237 and good support at 1334/33.

Gold has trended mostly sideways for over four years.

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Spot silver tests very important longer-term trendline support at 1590/80. Although we have overrun to 1562, this is well within the margin of error for such an important longer-term support. A weekly close above 1580 keeps bulls in the game next week.

A break below 1560, however, favours the bears today, targeting two-year trendline support at 1520/10.

Silver has been moving mostly sideways for the past three years.

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E-mini S&P is holding support at 2625/23 this week. Holding above 2636/38 would allow a further recovery to more minor resistance at 2648/50. Exit longs and try shorts on the approach to the all-time high at 2665.25.

It is entirely possible that this will mark a high for the near 10-year bull market as this is six-and-a-half-year trendline resistance. I am waiting for pattern confirmation.

Be aware that market tops are often marked by extended periods of extreme volatility. I am NOT saying this has started but let’s see what develops.

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Failure to hold above 2636/38 targets good support at 2620/18. Watch for a low for the day (we are still in a strong bull trend). Place stops below 2615 and look for the next target and a truly excellent short-term buying opportunity at 2607/05.

The weekly chart for E-mini Dow Jones show the strong multi-year bull trend. If the Dow Jones holds above 24230/240 this targets 24325/335, then 24385/395, before the all-time high at 24536. A break above 24550/56 targets 24760/780 and 24970/990.

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Holding below 24240/230 re-targets 24135/125 before this week’s low at 24083/078, just above support at 24045/035 for a buying opportunity. Place stops below 23990. Further losses target 23890 but look for an excellent buying opportunity at 23740/720.

The DAX 30 has traded sideways for four weeks. The first resistance is at 13080/090 but a move above 13120 targets 13150/170 and we should struggle here. Bulls need a clear and sustained break above the two-week high at 13197/13209 to seize control into next week and resume the longer-term bull trend.

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The first support is at 12980/960 but a move below here targets 12900 and 12860. Below here look for 12843/842 before the 12806 low. A break lower targets strong support at 12720/700. Try long positions with stops below 12650. A break below here is a sell signal targeting important support at 12520/490.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

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