Trading levels for US nonfarm payrolls


Jason Sen

AUD/USD tests very important two-year trendline support at 7500/7490. If we rally on a weak NFP number today, bulls can target 7550 then resistance at 7590/95. Watch for a high for the day here.

A break higher, however, targets 7620/25 and then very strong resistance at 7645/55. A weekly close below 7470 is a sell signal targeting 7420/10 and 7380/70.

The AUD/USD weekly chart shows the pair bouncing over the past two years but the longer-term trend is negative.

Click to expand image

For NZD/USD the key to direction is strong resistance at 6935/65 but we have not quite made it there yet this week. A break above here completes a bullish pattern for a buy signal. If you try short positions be ready to stop and reverse into longs on a break higher, targeting 6980 and minor resistance at 7025/35.

We are trading just above minor support at 6815/10 as I write. A move below here tests the 6780 low. A break lower targets 6735 and 6715/10.

The NZD/USD weekly chart shows a sideways trend over the past 18 months.

Click to expand image

EUR/USD is holding below what is now resistance at 1.1810/00 and risks a slide to 1.1755, perhaps as far as 1.1715/05. On further losses look for a buying opportunity at 1.1685/75.

If a weak NFP number takes the pair back above 1.1820, look for a test of minor resistance at 1.1865/70. Further gains would target 1.1890/1.1900.

The EUR/USD weekly chart shows a good recovery this year as we hold above the 2015 high.

Click to expand image

USD/CAD bounces above strong resistance at 1.2745/55, reaching all targets as far as 1.2845/50 before the 1.2906/16 high. A weekly close above here is obviously positive but we need to clear the 200-day moving average at 1.2950/55 for a clear buy signal into next week.

The first support at 1.2775/65 could hold the downside but a weak NFP number risks a slide to 1.2715/05. Below 1.2680 signals further losses to 1.2620 before support at 1.2590/80. Long positions needs stops below 1.2550.

Click to expand image

GBP/USD shot higher to the 1.3475/80 target and topped exactly here as I write. We are maintaining the 14-month bull trend and further gains target 1.3520/25 before the October/November high at 1.3543/48.

Obviously a weekly close above here is positive for next week. targeting the September high at 1.3650/56. The first support is at 1.3430/20 but a move below here risks a slide to 1.3355/45.

The GBP/USD weekly chart shows a strong recovery this year after the two-year crash from mid-2014.

Click to expand image

Gold collapsed despite oversold conditions to hit 1244. We are oversold in the short term and on the daily chart but any recovery looks like a selling opportunity now. Bulls can only rescue their position with a weekly close above 1260.

There is minor resistance at 1251/52, then strong resistance at 1262/64, likely to see a high for the day if tested. Short positions need stops above 1268.

We collapsed 20 points in a straight line to 1244. A move below here targets 1240/39, 1237 and good support at 1334/33.

Gold has trended mostly sideways for over four years.

Click to expand image

Spot silver tests very important longer-term trendline support at 1590/80. Although we have overrun to 1562, this is well within the margin of error for such an important longer-term support. A weekly close above 1580 keeps bulls in the game next week.

A break below 1560, however, favours the bears today, targeting two-year trendline support at 1520/10.

Silver has been moving mostly sideways for the past three years.

Click to expand image

E-mini S&P is holding support at 2625/23 this week. Holding above 2636/38 would allow a further recovery to more minor resistance at 2648/50. Exit longs and try shorts on the approach to the all-time high at 2665.25.

It is entirely possible that this will mark a high for the near 10-year bull market as this is six-and-a-half-year trendline resistance. I am waiting for pattern confirmation.

Be aware that market tops are often marked by extended periods of extreme volatility. I am NOT saying this has started but let’s see what develops.

Click to expand image

Failure to hold above 2636/38 targets good support at 2620/18. Watch for a low for the day (we are still in a strong bull trend). Place stops below 2615 and look for the next target and a truly excellent short-term buying opportunity at 2607/05.

The weekly chart for E-mini Dow Jones show the strong multi-year bull trend. If the Dow Jones holds above 24230/240 this targets 24325/335, then 24385/395, before the all-time high at 24536. A break above 24550/56 targets 24760/780 and 24970/990.

Click to expand image

Holding below 24240/230 re-targets 24135/125 before this week’s low at 24083/078, just above support at 24045/035 for a buying opportunity. Place stops below 23990. Further losses target 23890 but look for an excellent buying opportunity at 23740/720.

The DAX 30 has traded sideways for four weeks. The first resistance is at 13080/090 but a move above 13120 targets 13150/170 and we should struggle here. Bulls need a clear and sustained break above the two-week high at 13197/13209 to seize control into next week and resume the longer-term bull trend.

Click to expand image

The first support is at 12980/960 but a move below here targets 12900 and 12860. Below here look for 12843/842 before the 12806 low. A break lower targets strong support at 12720/700. Try long positions with stops below 12650. A break below here is a sell signal targeting important support at 12520/490.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

For more information, trading education and offers visit InterTrader

The content of this article is the personal opinion of the author and not InterTrader. You should under no circumstances consider the information and comments provided as an offer or solicitation to invest. This is not investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced.

Spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. They may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

InterTrader is a trading name of InterTrader Limited which is owned and controlled by GVC Holdings PLC. InterTrader Limited is authorised and regulated by the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission and registered with the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, ref 597312. Registered address: Suite 6, Atlantic Suites, Europort Avenue, Gibraltar.

Losses can exceed deposits
CREATE YOUR ACCOUNT OPEN A FREE DEMO
InterTrader.com