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Analysis of AUD/USD

AUD/USD managed to bounce during Wednesday session climbing to 1.0597 this morning after the Australian labour force survey reported a much more favourable figure than the forecast. Along with mixed data from China, the Aussie has been able to gain against the weakened USD and continue the uptrend that has been established since the beginning of June. With broad speculation about more QE in September, the pair is likely to continue higher. With the bullish alignment of the 20 EMA over the 50 EMA in place since mid-July and the MACD signal line comfortably above the zero line since end of June on the daily chart, the technical set up favours further movement on the upside. Considering that the market is currently trading at the top of the uptrend channel and with the RSI reaching the overbought levels, a little bit of weakness could be expected. With the bulls in full control of the market, next major resistance level sits at 1.08, the 2012 highs. A pullback is feasible, but it will have to break below the bottom of the channel, which looks relatively concrete at the moment, to initiate a substantial move to the downside. In that case, we could see the pair testing support at 1.0365. Given the lack of market depth due to summer vacations, we could see some brief volatility shocks, but we should expect the underlying trend to become clear in the coming week.

Dafni Serdari
Market Analyst
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