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EUR/USD ahead of US NFP

Trading conditions are different today with the EUR/USD having already lost about 60 pips from opening, currently at at 1.2867. The US traders are back to the market causing a sense of “catch up” with the media-favourite US NFPs expected to set the tone for today’s trading. What is critical about today’s payrolls data is the level of surprise. Thursday’s upbeat ADP figure may not be particularly reliable as advance look into today’s data, if one takes into account that last month’s ADP was revised from 162K to 88K. Considering however the correlation between Philly Fed employment sub-index and Chicago Fed employment sub-index (both disappointing lately) on the one hand and the NFP on the other, we could be surprised on the downside today, fuelling risk-appetite. A break above 1.2925 would expose 1.298. In the alternative scenario, the penetration of the strong support at 1.286, that the pair is currently challenging, could target 1.283.

Dafni Serdari
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