Back to Blog

Non-Farm Payrolls: What will traders be looking at?

In light of the US presidential election today’s NFP release may be the most important release of the month, with more focus on the political importance of the unemployment rate, rather than the economic importance of the payrolls. Unlike last month, an immediate Fed policy is not in play leaving room for the unemployment rate to set the tone of the next month of campaigning. With the unemployment rate likely to be a more important driver of FX market reactions today, a weak print of payrolls could be less negative for risk than usual. With the political cycle in mind, it looks like a bigger FX market reaction may be triggered should bad numbers come out, as they will be seen as further evening out the odds between Obama and Romney, especially after last night’s debate and subsequent narrowing in some election indicators. To sum up, it looks like the most risk positive (and on the same time USD negative) scenario is an increase in unemployment rate accompanied by a strong payroll’s print, i.e. the opposite of last month’s release.

Dafni Serdari
Market Analyst
The comment in this blog is the personal opinion of the contributors and not The content does not constitute financial, investment or tax advice. You are advised to discuss your specific requirements with an independent financial adviser prior to entering into any bet. is not responsible and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to the blog, and the content of any third party sites linked from this blog.

Share this post

Back to Blog

Spread betting and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading these products with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.