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Technical analysis of USD/JPY

Although the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain key interest rate unchanged at 0.10% was widely expected, traders were caught off guard by the lack of stimulus expansion that sent the USG/JPY plummeting below 82.00. The market continues to correct from the recent 2012 highs established at 84.12 several days ago, trading in a tight downtrend channel since 15th March. At 81.12 this morning there is still risk for additional setbacks into the 79.00-80.00 area, before the markets considers a bullish resumption. With a negative line capping RSI and the MACD signal line set to cross below the zero line on the daily chart the bias in the market remains bearish. The picture continues to look bearish on the 4 hour chart with the bearish alignment of the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA still in place since 28th February and the RSI hovering below 50 in the past week. Following the disappointing US NFP data on Friday and the speculation for further stimulus from across the Atlantic, the US Dollar could log further declines, which also favours short positions in USD/JPY with key target the psychologically important level by 80.00. In the opposite case, sustained trading over 82.50 would suggest that the corrective move is over and that the bias could turn to the upside again.

Dafni Serdari
Market Analyst
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