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What We Need to See from the Greek Talks (and What it Means for the Euro)

Andrei Knight, Senior Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
Another round of talks, another deadline came and went… let’s review what’s on the table. Troika and other lenders want Greece to get approval of all unity government parties for a budgetary reform, and to reach a deal with creditors who are currently asked to take a 70% haircut on outstanding debt. These are the terms to secure a €130B bailout (of €145B likely needed) in order to avoid a “disorderly default”, which could happen as soon as March.
Glad to have the spotlight on Greece, Portugal has meanwhile started discreetly exploring options for restructuring its own debt. As we wait for the ECB’s interest rate announcement on Thursday (widely not expected to shift from its current 1.0% stance), what can we expect from the EUR/USD in the week ahead?
With the markets awaiting word on Greece, we can expect the pair to remain in the 1.2968 to 1.3212 range. Some good news in combination with the price breaking above solid resistance at 1.3212 could take us to 1.3315, possibly 1.3601. Lack of a deal with price trading below support at1.2968 offers potential for a run back down to 1.2573 lows.

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