Technical Analysis of Barclays
Three months ago Barclays was still trading at close to 240. Since then it has taken a rather sharp nosedive and at one stage, the share traded at well below 140.
Looking at Fig. 10.25(a), we see that it started at just below 240 three months ago. At that stage the ten-day Exponential Moving Average was already somewhat below the 20-day level, showing us that the share was in somewhat of a bear phase.
After that, the ten-day EMA remained well below the 20-day EMA and the price dropped consistently, except for a few instances where the bulls tried in vain to push the price up. At the beginning of September, it dipped below the 140 level for the first time, followed by a concerted effort by the bulls that momentarily saw the price rise above the 20-day EMA.
Then it dropped below both moving averages again and also dropped below the 140 level again, at which stage we see a classic hammer pattern forming. Since then the price failed to form a new low. By the middle of October, it had in fact moved above the previous high we saw round the end of September.
Currently it is trading above both the ten-day and 20-day EMA. The ten-day EMA has also for the first time broken through the 20-day EMA line, which is another confirmation that we are seeing a mini bull run.
Whether this will last remains to be seen. Fundamental factors, such as the Euro debt crisis will no doubt play a role here. Any close above the 190 level could indicate that at least in the short term we will see a continuation of the bullish market.
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