Outlook for US dollar pairs ahead of this week’s US NFP
The US Dollar Index signalled a reversal of the bull trend last week with the double-top sell signal. I covered this topic in last week’s article and the dollar pairs weakened again yesterday, to confirm further negative sentiment going forward into this week’s US nonfarm payrolls.
AUD/USD has finally beaten key resistance at 6940/45 for a buy signal targeting minor resistance at 6963/66, 6990/95 and perhaps as far as 7025/30 this week.
The downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 6955. In the unlikely event that we fall as far as 6945/40, try long positions with stops below 6925.
NZD/USD beat 6550/55 for a buy signal initially targeting minor resistance at 6585/95, which was hit. The outlook turns positive as we test minor resistance at 6585/95 then look for 6610 and 6625/30, perhaps as far as 6640.
Again the downside should be limited with minor support at 6575. It’s unlikely but if we fall as far as 6560/50, try long positions with stops below 6525.
EUR/USD has held strong resistance at 1.1185/95 extremely well in the days leading up to yesterday and held perfectly again for much of the day. Eventually we broke higher for a strong buy signal, initially targeting 1.1245/50 and strong resistance at 1.1265/75. We topped exactly here but a break above 1.1275 is expected eventually, for a buy signal targeting 1.1320/25 and strong resistance at 1.1365/75.
We are holding strong resistance at 1.1265/75 as I write so a small pullback is possible to first support at 1.1230/20. I expect the downside to be limited but try long positions at 1.1205/1.1195 with stops below 1.1180.
GBP/USD has a bullish candle in oversold conditions on Friday for a potential buy signal, but the recovery was limited yesterday. The pair really struggled at first resistance at 1.2640/55 but we are holding above now to target 1.2700/05. A break above 1.2715 keeps bulls in control for 1.2745/55.
Failure to hold first support at 1.2655/40 risks a slide to 1.2610/00 before the low at 1.2570/60 where buyers piled in last week. Watch for a bounce from here again. A break below 1.2550, however, targets 1.2535/25.
Gold beat strong resistance at 1296/98 for a buy signal and closed above 1303 for another buy signal on Friday. We hit all targets as far as 1319/20 yesterday and continued higher to 1327.
Gold is severely overbought in the short term so a small correction is very possible, but short positions are high-risk. Below 1324 risks a slide to minor support at 1320. Better support at 1316/15 could hold the downside. Long positions need stops below 1312. Look for a buying opportunity at 1309/07.
A break above 1329 is expected eventually this week, targeting 1333 and 1336/37 before a re-test of the high this year at 1346.
Silver bulls are fighting back with the break above 1462/64 for a buy signal targeting 1471/71, 1482/84 and resistance at 1488/90. We should struggle here but shorts are risky. A break higher eventually targets 1497/1500.
The downside should be limited with first support at 1471/69. If we continue lower look for a buying opportunity at 1463/60, with stops below 1450.
Technical Analyst & Trader
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