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September’s busy calendar

After the first quiet August in terms of news flow in three years, September seems to be the crunch time for Europe. With the ECB meeting, the decision of the German constitutional court, the Dutch elections, the FOMC meeting and the Euro group meeting scheduled in the first half of the month, it looks like policy makers could give some long awaited answers, the markets have been hoping for, opening the door for highly volatile trading sessions in September. Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming events. On 6th September the ECB is expected to spell out the concrete details of its new non-standard measures. The central bank has already expressed its willingness to take on more credit risk, but it is unlikely to announce specific amounts. We should also consider the possibility of fresh delays ahead of the German constitutional court decision on 12th September. Although the German court is unlikely to rule against the ESM, there could be quite a lot of debate over the conditionalities. Renewed uncertainty could come in Europe due to the Dutch elections on 12th September, as Dutch politics suggest that it will be difficult to form a strong coalition that is necessary to ratify important decisions such as on the ESM and the fiscal compact. If by 15th September (when the Euro group meets) some clarity has been provided, Spain should be ready to decide whether to apply for bond purchase support. At the end of September, Cyprus is expected to hit the headlines, as it will most probably be bail-out time for the Mediterranean island, whose public finances have recently been estimated to be in worse shape than initially expected. Using the news and economic events to make trading decisions can be just as important as trading from charts. Join our webinar “Trading the News” on 18th September at 8.00 pm (UK) to learn how to plan and execute positive expectancy trades around calendar events.
Dafni Serdari
Market Analyst

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