Short-term forex analysis and trading levels
AUD/USD tests first resistance at 7880/85 before last week’s high at 7892/97. Obviously this is now key to direction and worth profit-taking on long positions before the weekend. Short positions are however risky. We must be ready to buy a break above 7910 in the bull trend to target 7945/49.
Failure to beat the 7885/95 area targets 7860/56 before another buying opportunity at 7835/31. Long positions need stops below 7810. An unexpected break lower, however, targets 7790 and then 7770/65.
NZD/USD has collapsed to a new four-month low. A drop below 7000 targets 6975 and probably as far as two-year trendline support at 6960/50. Obviously this is the most important level of the day. If you feel brave enough to try long positions use stops below 6910.
Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 7055/7065. Short positions need stops above 7085. Further gains would target 7110/15, with short traders placing stops above 7135.
For USD/CAD the first support at 1.2470/60 is key to direction. Holding here keeps bulls in control, targeting minor resistance at 1.2500 and then 1.2540, before the 1.2590/97 recovery high. A break above 1.2610 is a buy signal targeting 1.2670/80.
Long positions at 1.2470/60 need stops below 1.2430. Be ready to sell a break lower targeting 1.2395/85 and perhaps as far as 1.2330/25. Eventually we could reach 1.2265/60 at the start of next week.
GBP/USD shows minor resistance at 1.3215/20 but a move higher would target stronger resistance at 1.3260/65. If you try short positions use stops above 1.3290. A break higher targets very strong resistance at 1.3340/50. Above here, therefore, is a buy signal, seeing 1.3350/40 act as strong support, targeting 1.3415 and 1.3445/50 before trendline resistance at 1.3475/80.
Strong support at 1.3145/40 is holding so far this week. However, a break today targets 1.3120/16, then 1.3092/90 and perhaps as far as the October low at 1.3030/25.
GBP/JPY has been sideways for two weeks. The first resistance is at 148.45/50 but a move above here targets 148.80/85 and perhaps as far as resistance at 149.30/40. Watch for a high for the day again. However, short positions need stops above 149.80. A break higher would target 150.15/20 and 150.50/60.
The first support is at 147.85/75. A move below here targets 147.45/40 and the recent low at 147.00/146.90.
If USD/JPY holds below 112.75 this targets minor support at 112.55/50, before much better support at 111.90/80. Long positions need stops below the 111.64 low for this week. A break lower targets 111.25. You could exit shorts here and try long positions at 111.10/00, with stops below 110.80.
Holding above 112.75 targets the September high of 113.25, perhaps as far as the two-week high at 113.40/43. Seven-month trendline resistance at 113.60/65 should cause bulls big problems. We will see if bears re-take control to keep us in a 10-month sideways trend.
EUR/JPY has also been mostly sideways for four weeks. A move above minor resistance at 133.50/60 targets 134.00/05, before the September high at 134.38/41.
There’s minor support at 132.80/70, but a drop below here targets 135.35/30 and then support at 131.80/70. Long positions need stops below 131.50.
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