Steve’s Trading Targets: April 2015
In accordance with my 80/20 rule of trading there are certain things I’m looking at right now that will move the markets. Remember, 80% of the time my trades revolve around technical analysis. The other 20% of the time I focus on news and data.
Following on from last month Trading Targets message: ‘We are ending the attention on ‘growth’ – now it’s all about inflation.’ This is now firmly planted in my trading outlook.
After the worse than expected NFP (126K v 267K) the markets ended the bank holiday red. This was short-lived however, as the markets recovered on the Monday and simply rallied uncontrollably on Tuesday.
1. Weak jobs mean that the Fed may hold or pause the inevitable rate hike
2. We were due a drop in the jobs creation
3. The weather. Will there be a huge revision to this figure next month?
After some profit-taking, the threat of US rate hikes, Grexit or Russia, it seems the markets and indices take any news as a positive. These daily charts say it all:
The DAX, FTSE, S&P and the Euro Stoxx retrace all the losses in one trading session. The FTSE now re-targets 7000 and the DAX is sitting once again supported over 12,000. Dip-buying any negative moves in the indices is still very much in my playbook. Buy low, sell… eventually.
Now the NFP is firmly discounted we once again turn our attention to determining which data counts. This is 100% centred on Janet Yellen and the FOMC meeting. When will the US raise rates?
The key to this is to look at the fundamental events that traders will use to form these calls.
Key data: I target the current best opportunities
- 8 April: BOJ monetary policy statement (overnight)
- 8 April: US FOMC minutes 19:00
- 9 April: BoE interest rate decision 12:00
- 10 April: Canadian employment 13:30
- 15 April: Canadian rate decisions 15:00
- 17 April: US CPI 14:30
- 29 April: US GDP 13:30
Key levels: technical
|Break (up)||Bounce (down)||Break||Bounce|
My sentiment and trading target philosophy
The overall direction of the markets right now is not crucial to my trading or making money. I look for short-term trades in order to capitalise on market movements and volatility. I can enter a trade several times with the same view.
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Chief Market Strategist
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