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Steve Ruffley

Steve’s Trading Targets: April 2015

In accordance with my 80/20 rule of trading there are certain things I’m looking at right now that will move the markets. Remember, 80% of the time my trades revolve around technical analysis. The other 20% of the time I focus on news and data.
Following on from last month Trading Targets message: ‘We are ending the attention on ‘growth’ – now it’s all about inflation.’ This is now firmly planted in my trading outlook.
After the worse than expected NFP (126K v 267K) the markets ended the bank holiday red. This was short-lived however, as the markets recovered on the Monday and simply rallied uncontrollably on Tuesday.
Why?
1. Weak jobs mean that the Fed may hold or pause the inevitable rate hike
2. We were due a drop in the jobs creation
3. The weather. Will there be a huge revision to this figure next month?
After some profit-taking, the threat of US rate hikes, Grexit or Russia, it seems the markets and indices take any news as a positive. These daily charts say it all:

The DAX, FTSE, S&P and the Euro Stoxx retrace all the losses in one trading session. The FTSE now re-targets 7000 and the DAX is sitting once again supported over 12,000. Dip-buying any negative moves in the indices is still very much in my playbook. Buy low, sell… eventually.
Data: inflation
Now the NFP is firmly discounted we once again turn our attention to determining which data counts. This is 100% centred on Janet Yellen and the FOMC meeting. When will the US raise rates?
The key to this is to look at the fundamental events that traders will use to form these calls.
Key data: I target the current best opportunities

  • 8 April: BOJ monetary policy statement (overnight)
  • 8 April: US FOMC minutes 19:00
  • 9 April: BoE interest rate decision 12:00
  • 10 April: Canadian employment 13:30
  • 15 April: Canadian rate decisions 15:00
  • 17 April: US CPI 14:30
  • 29 April: US GDP 13:30

Key levels: technical

Break (up) Bounce (down) Break Bounce
USD/JPY 120.800 118.970 DAX 12222 11905
EUR/USD 1.09457 1.07199 FTSE 7000 6901
GBP/USD 1.49900 1.48160 SPX 2092 2071
SMI 9293 9134 Gold 1215 1205.99

My sentiment and trading target philosophy
The overall direction of the markets right now is not crucial to my trading or making money. I look for short-term trades in order to capitalise on market movements and volatility. I can enter a trade several times with the same view.
I run an extensive schedule of free webinars and live trading sessions with Intertrader.com, where you can get a better idea of how I look to trade the markets. Just click here to register for an upcoming session.
Steve Ruffley
Chief Market Strategist
Intertrader.com
For more information, trading education and offers visit Intertrader.com
The content of this article is the personal opinion of the author and not Intertrader.com. The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced.

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