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Trading levels for dollar pairs over the US nonfarm payrolls

Jason Sen
EUR/USD could be forming a very negative head-and-shoulders top. The key support today is at 1.2320/10. A break below 1.2290 would signal a move towards 1.2250/45. Below here we are likely to target 1.2220/10, then mega-important support at 1.2175/65. A break below the head-and-shoulders neckline at 1.2130 would be a big sell signal.
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Bulls need the pair back above 1.2340 to be in with a chance of a recovery to 1.2400/10. We should struggle here but further gains would re-test the 1.2430/40 high.
For AUD/USD the key to direction is first support at 7795/90. Holding here again today keeps bulls in control for 7810/15 and 7835/40. On further gains look for 7850 and 7870/80 for profit-taking.
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Failure to hold above 7795/90 targets minor support at 7760. Long positions need stops below 7745 and a break lower would target 7700/95.
The first support for NZD/USD is at 7265/60. Above 7275/80 we should re-target the 7310/11 high, then minor resistance at 7340. On further gains look for 7361/64 and 7380/84.
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Long positions need stops below 7240 to target much better support at 7190/80. Watch here for a low for the day. A weekly close below this level is however an important sell signal.
USDJPY shot higher through resistance at 106.60/70 for an important buy signal, so you could try to buy into long positions targeting 107.10/20, 107.45/50 and 107.80/85. I would exit long positons up to 108.30/40 and try shorts with stops above 108.80.
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Consider buying at 106.60/50, with stops below 106.20. A move below here risks a slide to 106.00 and 105.70/60 before the 105.28/23 low.
If USD/CAD holds below 1.2910 we risk a re-test of the low on Tuesday at 1.2860/50. Expect strong support at 1.2830/20 and a good chance of a low for the day, but long positions need stops below 1.2800. A break lower would target 1.2760, then strong support at 1.2720/10.
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We have minor resistance at 1.2945/55, then important resistance at 1.2980/1.3000. Place stops above 1.3030. However, be ready to reverse into a long position if shorts are stopped and we close the week above 1.3000. A sustained break above 1.3010 is an important buy signal, initially targeting 1.3035/40 and 1.3065/70.
GBP/USD broke support at 1.3850/45. The outlook is negative and a move below 1.3790 targets 1.3765/55, then the recent low at 1.3715/10. Further losses meet very important support at 1.3660/40.
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A recovery would meet strong resistance at 1.3850/60. Try short positions with stops above 1.3900. An unexpected break higher would target 1.3930/35, with a break higher looking for 1.3990/95.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader
For more information, trading education and offers visit InterTrader
The content of this article is the personal opinion of the author and not InterTrader. You should under no circumstances consider the information and comments provided as an offer or solicitation to invest. This is not investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced.

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