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Trading ideas for the US nonfarm payrolls

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The US Dollar Index has been the big winner over the past week, seeing strong gains from the late-February low of 95.83 to Thursday’s high of 97.71. As you can see in the daily chart below, this high matches the November and December highs and is therefore key to direction into the release of today’s US nonfarm payrolls number.

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A weekly close above 97.75 acts as a buy signal for the start of next week, targeting 97.87/88 and important trendline resistance at 98.25/30, as you can see in the weekly chart below.

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Here are some trading ideas for US dollar pairs on the release of today’s important data.

For AUD/USD the outlook is negative. A break below 7010 targets 6995/90 then minor support at 6955/50 today. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 7015/25. Look for a selling opportunity at 7050/60 with stops above 7080.

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NZD/USD breaking below 6750 re-tests minor support at the February low at 6718. The first resistance is at 6785/90 and we should struggle here again. However, look for a selling opportunity at 6810/20, with stops above 6835.

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USD/JPY meets strong support at 111.40/35. Further losses would test strong support at 111.05/00. A break below 110.90 would be an important sell signal, initially targeting 110.35/30.

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If we hold strong support at 111.40/35 we target minor resistance at 111.65/70. On further gains look for 111.85 before a selling opportunity at 112.10/20. Place stops above 112.30.

EUR/JPY crashed to 124.65. We have minor resistance at 125.05/10 then strong resistance at 125.30/35. If we unexpectedly continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 125.70/80, with stops above 126.00.

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The outlook remains negative and we are likely to continue lower to test strong support at 124.20/10. Try long positions here with stops below 123.90.

EUR/USD meets two-month trendline support at 1.1180/70. A bounce from here targets 1.1200/10, then a selling opportunity at 1.1230/40, with stops above 1.1260.

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A break below 1.1160 would be a sell signal, targeting 17-month trendline support at 1.1120/10.

USD/CAD bulls require a break above 1.3470 (we are trying it as I write) to target 1.3495/99 and 1.3440/50. Bulls are in control so the downside should be limited but holding below 1.3450 risks a slide to 1.3410/00.

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On further unexpected losses look for a buying opportunity at 1.3370/60, with stops below 1.3350.

Jason Sen

Technical Analyst & Trader

For more information and trading education visit InterTrader

The content of this article is the personal opinion of the author and not InterTrader. You should under no circumstances consider the information and comments provided as an offer or solicitation to invest. This is not investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced.

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